Trek Journey ②｜Four negative impacts of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan on Sino-US relations
In early August, U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, despite China’s diplomatic efforts and strong opposition, insisted on going to Taiwan, which triggered the most serious Taiwan Strait crisis in the past 25 years. The confrontation and tension between China and the United States have further escalated. . What impact will Pelosi’s visit have on China-US relations, the Taiwan issue, and the peace and stability of the region and the world? The Shanghai Institutes for International Studies recently released a research report “From Political Commitment to Treachery: Pelosi’s Trek Journey”, which provides multi-perspective and in-depth situation analysis and policy interpretation for people from all walks of life at home and abroad.
Recently, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, insisted on visiting Taiwan despite China’s strong opposition and repeated representations. This move violated the US government’s promise not to conduct “official exchanges” with the Taiwan authorities, and severely impacted the political foundation of China-US relations. As the №3 figure in the US government, Pelosi is trying to build a personal political legacy through the Taiwan issue, but it has brought a negative impact on Sino-US relations that cannot be underestimated. Her actions show the arrogance, arrogance and irresponsibility of American politicians, which will further intensify the tension between China and the United States.
First, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has seriously damaged the strategic mutual trust between China and the US. Properly handling the Taiwan issue was the basic premise for the normalization of relations between China and the United States in the 1970s. The Taiwan question concerns China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and has always been the most important and sensitive issue in China-US relations. Although the United States claims that the one-China policy it pursues has not changed, the United States has taken a series of provocative measures in recent years, making the one-China policy increasingly hollow. The Trump administration has comprehensively adjusted the U.S. strategy toward China based on “great power competition” and attempted to suppress China by adopting the “Taiwan-based China” strategy. Against this background, the Trump administration dispatched senior cabinet-level officials to visit Taiwan, and the strategic document issued by the US Department of Defense included “Taiwan” in the “country” category. The United States has significantly increased arms sales to Taiwan, trying to make the Taiwan region play an important role in the United States’ “Indo-Pacific strategy.”
The Biden administration has basically continued the Trump administration’s China strategy, advocating “intense competition” with China, and continuing to take provocative words and deeds against China on the Taiwan issue. President Biden himself has repeatedly made the so-called “slip of the tongue” of “defending Taiwan by force” in public. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and other senior officials baselessly accuse mainland China of “changing the status quo”. When expounding the U.S. one-China policy, the U.S. side placed the “Taiwan Relations Act” before the three Sino-U.S. joint communiques and included the so-called “six guarantees”. Subsequently, the U.S. side deleted the statement “The U.S. does not support Taiwan independence” from the State Department’s website. Pelosi openly used the term “diplomatic relations” between the United States and Taiwan in her published article. In China’s view, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is not an isolated incident. It reflects the United States’ attempt to “change the status quo” and implement “Taiwan to control China” in Taiwan-related policies. As pointed out by senior experts from American think tanks, such as Graiyi, Pelosi’s move has eroded the political credibility of the US government and further weakened China’s confidence in the US’ prudent handling of the Taiwan issue.
Second, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan may increase the risk of military friction and conflict between China and the United States. From the perspective of the Chinese mainland, strengthening preparations for military struggle is a necessary measure to contain “Taiwan independence” and deal with the strong interference of foreign forces in the Taiwan issue. In recent years, the military risk of the Taiwan issue has been increasing. Senior U.S. officials have publicly announced that the mainland will “use force” against Taiwan by 2027, thereby increasing the “China threat”, creating tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, and winning more military budgets. The United States has continued to advance plans such as the “Pacific Deterrence Initiative” (PDI), accelerated the construction of a precision strike network against China along the “first island chain” such as Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines, and stepped up the implementation of an “integrated deterrence” strategy against China. U.S. State Department Deputy Secretary of State Sherman said that since 2009, the United States has provided arms sales worth more than 30 billion U.S. dollars to Taiwan. The U.S. Department of State, Department of Defense and other agencies will continue to simplify relevant arms sales procedures and promote arms companies to speed up delivery time.
Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this time is the first to collude with Taiwan, and China has taken a strong military counterattack. The People’s Liberation Army held large-scale live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait. The Chinese side also took measures such as canceling the working meeting between the Chinese and the US Department of Defense, and not arranging phone calls between the leaders of the two military theaters. The United States falsely accused the PLA’s actions in the Taiwan Strait of escalating tensions, but made no mention of Pelosi’s malicious provocation. The U.S. military also clamored to send warships and planes across the Taiwan Strait and deploy aircraft carrier strike groups. It is worth noting that senior U.S. military officials have increased the exaggeration of the PLA’s actions as “unsafe” and “unprofessional”. Some people in the US military even believe that the US military and the People’s Liberation Army must have a war, and it is better to fight early than later. Undoubtedly, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan may push the military game between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait into a new stage.
Third, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan may make the China hawks in the United States even more arrogant, and the challenges faced by China and the United States in managing tensions will further increase. For a long time, some US congressmen with strong “anti-China” and “anti-Communist” positions have played a negative role on the Taiwan issue and provoked confrontation between China and the United States. In recent years, in the context of the United States’ efforts to promote strategic competition with China, a new wave of “support” has emerged in the US Congress. Especially after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out this year, many U.S. congressmen confused the Ukraine crisis with the Taiwan issue and made a big splash on the so-called “protection of Taiwan by force”. In April, a US congressional delegation led by Republican Senator Graham and Democratic Senator Menendez visited Taiwan. American politicians frequently refer to Taiwan as a “country”, ignoring one China. Menendez falsely claimed during a meeting with Tsai Ing-wen that Taiwan was “a country of global importance”.
Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will inevitably serve as a “demonstration” and “inspiration” for China hawks in the United States. Not only did some Democratic lawmakers “applaud” Pelosi, but Senate Republican leader McConnell and others also publicly supported Pelosi. Legislative agendas such as the “Taiwan Policy Act of 2022,” co-sponsored by Menendez, Graham and others, may be pushed faster. These bills require the US government to implement a series of new provocative measures, such as renaming the “US Economic and Cultural Office” as the “Taiwan Representative Office”, establishing the “Taiwan Security Assistance Initiative”, and bringing Taiwan into the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.” Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan actually reflects the complex impact of US domestic politics on Sino-US relations and cross-strait relations. US lawmakers from both parties are competing to play the “Taiwan card” to show toughness against China and earn political capital. The power of the executive branch of the U.S. government on the Taiwan issue may be declining, and the adverse impact of U.S. internal affairs on the Sino-U.S. control of the Taiwan Strait crisis will be increasingly intensified.
Fourth, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan sends a wrong signal to US allies, and the US may more recklessly promote the “internationalization” of the Taiwan issue. So far, the US government has taken no position on the issue of Taiwan’s “sovereignty”, and has not made a clear commitment to defend Taiwan by force, which is considered a “strategic ambiguity”. In recent years, in addition to the increasing support for “strategic clarity” in the United States, politicians from Japan, Australia and other countries are also supporting this. Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe once wrote that the tragedy in Ukraine is a painful lesson. The “strategic ambiguous” policy of the United States on the Taiwan issue has made it difficult to deter the mainland. The United States and Japan must clearly demonstrate their determination to defend Taiwan. In addition, former Australian Defense Minister Peter Dutton and others are worried that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will make the United States focus on Europe, and it will be difficult to take into account the Indo-Pacific region, thereby increasing the possibility of mainland China taking tough actions in the Taiwan Strait. Truss, the British foreign secretary, promoted the concept of the so-called “global NATO” and falsely claimed that NATO countries should intervene in the Taiwan issue.
For Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, European Parliament Vice President Nicola Bier and others publicly praised them and clamored for more European Parliament members to visit Taiwan in the future. In addition, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Commons of the British Parliament may organize a delegation to visit Taiwan in November or early December this year. Some politicians in Germany, France, the Czech Republic and other European countries are also following the trend and hyping up. They try to vent their dissatisfaction with China on issues such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict through provocative measures on the Taiwan issue, and increase the leverage to put pressure on China. It should be noted that promoting the “internationalization” of the Taiwan issue is an important part of the U.S. strategy of “using Taiwan to control China.” It has become the forefront of the so-called “free world” against the “China threat”. This is bound to complicate the game between China and the United States over the Taiwan issue, which will have a negative impact on the peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific region and the world at large.
